Recommendation Intelligence Research™

The State of AI Recommendations in Beauty

We asked one AI model 20 high-intent beauty shopping questions, 20 times each. Then we checked something nobody else is measuring: does being recommended by AI have anything to do with how AI-ready your store actually is?

4,000
Recommendations
238
Distinct brands
20
Shopping intents
400
Prompt-runs
How we measured it

Methodology, up front

Research is only worth anything if you can see how it was made. So here is the whole setup before any findings. Everything below is computed from real captured responses. Nothing is estimated or projected.

Category: Beauty
Model: one model (gpt-4o-mini)
Intents: 20 high-intent prompts
Runs per intent: 20
Prompt-runs total: 400
Recommendations captured: 4,000

Recommendation Share™

A brand's share of all recommendations captured. The whole field sums to 100 percent.

Recommendation Frequency™

In what percent of the 400 prompt-runs the brand appeared at least once.

Recommendation Position™

Average rank in the answer when the brand appeared. Lower is better.

Limits we are honest about: this is one model, one category, at one point in time. AI recommendations vary run to run, which is exactly why each intent ran 20 times rather than once. Brand names were mapped to the real stores we measure where a match exists; brands with no measured store are reported as off-index, never invented.
Who AI recommends

The beauty recommendation leaderboard

Top 20 brands by share of voice across all 4,000 recommendations. The last column is each brand's real AI Commerce Score™ from our index, where the store is something we measure. Hold that column in mind, because the next section is about it.

#Brand Share™ Freq™ Pos™ AI Commerce Score™
1 Neutrogena 5.6%
55.8% 3.6 43AI Invisible
2 The Ordinary 5.0%
49.8% 3.9 50Low
3 CeraVe 4.8%
48.0% 3.9 54Low
4 La Roche-Posay off-index 4.5%
45.0% 3.9 Off-index
5 Drunk Elephant 4.0%
40.3% 5.6 87Highly
6 Clinique 3.9%
38.5% 5.3 14AI Invisible
7 Tatcha 3.6%
36.0% 7.6 71Moderately
8 Paula's Choice 3.3%
33.0% 4.5 73Moderately
9 SkinCeuticals 3.2%
31.8% 4.1 14AI Invisible
10 Burt's Bees 2.7%
27.0% 6.4 34AI Invisible
11 Kiehl's 2.6%
25.5% 5.6 14AI Invisible
12 Estee Lauder off-index 2.0%
20.3% 4.1 Off-index
13 Aveeno 1.7%
17.3% 6.7 49AI Invisible
14 Olay 1.5%
15.3% 4.3 61Low
15 Murad off-index 1.5%
15.0% 8.2 Off-index
16 COSRX 1.4%
14.0% 6.4 56Low
17 Vichy off-index 1.3%
12.8% 7.3 Off-index
18 Mario Badescu off-index 1.2%
11.8% 8.9 Off-index
19 L'Oreal Paris off-index 1.1%
10.5% 7.6 Off-index
20 Herbivore Botanicals 1.0%
9.8% 5.0 49AI Invisible
The central finding

How often AI recommends you has almost nothing to do with how AI-ready you are

If AI recommended the stores that are easiest for AI to read, these two numbers would move together. They do not. Across the on-index brands, the correlation between Recommendation Frequency™ and AI Commerce Score™ is just r = 0.17 (n = 18). At this sample size that is statistically indistinguishable from zero, well below the threshold for significance. The honest read is not a weak link, it is no measurable relationship. Each dot is a brand.

02550751000%15%30%45%60% Recommendation Frequency™ (percent of prompts) AI Commerce Score™ Neutrogena: 55.8% frequency, score 43The Ordinary: 49.8% frequency, score 50CeraVe: 48.0% frequency, score 54Drunk Elephant: 40.3% frequency, score 87Clinique: 38.5% frequency, score 14Tatcha: 36.0% frequency, score 71Paula's Choice: 33.0% frequency, score 73SkinCeuticals: 31.8% frequency, score 14Burt's Bees: 27.0% frequency, score 34Kiehl's: 25.5% frequency, score 14Aveeno: 17.3% frequency, score 49Olay: 15.3% frequency, score 61COSRX: 14.0% frequency, score 56Herbivore Botanicals: 9.8% frequency, score 49 Drunk ElephantPaula's ChoiceSkinCeuticalsThe OrdinaryNeutrogenaCliniqueKiehl'sTatchaCeraVe
Highly (85+)
Moderately (70 to 84)
Low (50 to 69)
AI Invisible (under 50)
The clearest examples sit in the top left. Clinique, SkinCeuticals, and Kiehl's are each recommended in a quarter to nearly forty percent of prompts, yet their stores score just 14 out of 100, deep in AI Invisible Risk. AI recommends them anyway, because it knows the names from training data, not because their stores are readable today.

The mirror image is Drunk Elephant, the best-built store in the set at 87 out of 100, recommended often but not the most. And the single most recommended brand overall, Neutrogena, sits at a middling 43. The average AI Commerce Score™ across all on-index recommended brands is only 45.3, barely above the database-wide average. Being famous is currently enough.

What maps to a real store

Brands, not retailers

When buyers ask AI for "the best" of something, AI answers with brands, almost never with shops. Retailers like Amazon, Sephora, and Ulta accounted for just 14 of 4,000 recommendations. That is the whole thesis of Recommendation Intelligence™ in one number: the contest AI runs is between brands and their own stores, not between marketplaces.

57.6%
of recommendations map to a store we actually measure (on-index)
42.4%
are brands with no direct-to-consumer store in our index, reported as off-index, never fabricated
What it means

Visibility is not recommendation, and recommendation is not readiness

Today AI recommends from memory. It reaches for the names it saw most during training, which is why decades-old drugstore brands win even when their stores are nearly unreadable to a machine. That is a temporary state. As AI shopping moves from recalling names to live retrieval and agents that browse, compare, and check out, the advantage shifts to the stores an agent can actually read, trust, and act on.

That is the gap this research exposes and the one the Recommendation Intelligence Framework™ is built to close: AI Readability, AI Understanding, AI Trust, Recommendation Intelligence, and Decision Confidence. The brands coasting on fame today are the ones with the most to lose when the model changes. The brands building readable, trustworthy, machine-legible stores now are the ones that keep the recommendation when memory stops being enough.

Will AI still recommend you when it has to read your store?
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